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Friday, January 18, 2008
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 18, 2008 at 1:02 am ET
In his testimony to Congress, Chairman Bernanke argued that any fiscal stimulus package be structured to impact spending within the next twelve months, otherwise the economy would probably already be improving: "To be useful, a ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 18, 2008 at 12:21 am ET
Counterparty risk really hit the markets today.From the WSJ: Default Fears Unnerve Markets. A few excerpts: Today, a struggling bond insurer, ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., will ask its trading partners for more time as ... (more)

Thursday, January 17, 2008
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 8:59 pm ET
Here is some info from the Washington Mutual conference call, and a spreadsheet of WaMu credit risk (courtesy of Brian):Although we are not seeing significant changes in early stage delinquencies, once a borrower is delinquent, ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 5:07 pm ET
Plenty of sites are covering the stock market, so I'll bring you the cliff diving for the ABX and CMBX indices, Commercial paper spread, and MBIA surplus notes.From Reuters: MBIA's surplus notes plunge to 80 ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 3:38 pm ET
Reuters reports that S&P said today that they expect monoline insurer losses to be 20% higher than they forecast last month. See Reuters: S&P says bond insurance losses likely 20 pct higher (hat tip Michael) ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 2:15 pm ET
From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales drag along bottom, median price back to 2005 level Bay Area home sales ended 2007 at a more-than 20-year ...A total of 5,065 new and resale houses and condos ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 1:18 pm ET
The Philadelphia Fed Index was released today: Manufacturers See Weakening in Activity. Since the index was so weak, this gives me an excuse to plot a long term graph of the Philly index vs. ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 12:06 pm ET
Last July, OFHEO economist Andrew Leventis wrote: A Note on the Differences between the OFHEO and S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indexes. The OFHEO note suggested that the primary reason for the difference between the national Case-Shiller ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 10:33 am ET
From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Testimony to Congress: The economic outlook. Here are his comments on possible fiscal stimulus: A number of analysts have raised the possibility that fiscal policy actions might usefully complement monetary ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 9:49 am ET
PR from Ambac: Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (“Ambac”), the parent company of Ambac Assurance Corporation, today commented on a January 16, 2008 announcement by Moody’s Investors Service that it has placed Ambac Assurance ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 9:32 am ET
From the WSJ: Merrill Lynch Swings to Loss Amid Deep Write-Downs Lynch & Co. matched Citigroup Inc.'s massive fourth-quarter net loss, as the company recorded a total of $16.7 billion in losses related to ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 17, 2008 at 9:19 am ET
The Census Bureau reports on housing Permits, Starts and Completions.Seasonally adjusted permits fell: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,068,000. This is 8.1 percent ... (more)

Wednesday, January 16, 2008
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 11:16 pm ET
From the WSJ: Las Vegas Default Highlights Commercial-Property Crunch The credit crunch ... is starting to bite commercial projects, too.Yesterday ... the developer of a twin-tower casino resort in the heart of Las Vegas, defaulted ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 11:05 pm ET
From Moody's (no link): Moody's has placed the ratings of Ambac Assurance Corp. and Ambac Assurance UK on review for possible downgrade. Moody's has also placed the ratings of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 5:42 pm ET
From Bloomberg: S&P Will Review Bond Insurers With New Assumptions Standard & Poor's will re-examine the AAA credit ratings of bond insurers including MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. after deciding that the housing ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 4:07 pm ET
Remember when the credit problems were contained to subprime mortgages? From Greg Ip in July 2007: "Despite fears in the markets and press that subprime problems would trigger broader contagion, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 2:56 pm ET
Remember those surplus notes that MBIA sold yielding 14%? See: "How many other AAA rated companies are raising money at 14%?"I guess a 14% yield isn't enough anymore, from Reuters: MBIA's Surplus Notes Plunge to ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 2:19 pm ET
I recommend this article from the Sunday New York Times magazine The Education of Ben Bernanke, by Roger Lowenstein. It is long, but well worth reading. “I think Bernanke is in a very difficult ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 12:55 pm ET
Click on graph for larger image.The NAHB reports that builder confidence was at 19 in January, up from a revised 18 in December. Confidence in January would have been at a record low without ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 11:30 am ET
Tanta previously noted that Downey announced they were restating their Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). Here is the graph of the new percentages from the Downey Financial 8-K released yesterday. Click on graph for larger image.Update: added ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 11:25 am ET
From the Wall Street Journal:In some cases, servicers are telling borrowers they will take 10 cents on the dollar to settle their claim, says Micheal Thompson, director of the Iowa Mediation Service, which runs a ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 9:52 am ET
Quote of the day:“For all consumer credit and I think we've pointed out consistently that we see in auto, home equity, subprime, credit card, that where home prices are down, delinquencies, charge-offs are going up, ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 8:27 am ET
PR from Ambac: Ambac Announces Capital Enhancement Plan to Raise in Excess of $1 Billion Ambac Financial Group ... today announced ... the issuance of at least $1 billion of equity and equity-linked securities. ... ... (more)

From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 16, 2008 at 8:22 am ET
From the WSJ: J.P. Morgan Posts 34% Fall in Net On Subprime-Related Write-Downs J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s fourth-quarter net income fell 34% as the company recorded $1.3 billion in markdowns on subprime positions and ... (more)

Tuesday, January 15, 2008
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
January 15, 2008 at 11:51 pm ET
From Housing Wire: Get Ready For More Downgrades: S&P Revises RMBS Ratings Assumptions (Again) S&P said it has revised the assumptions it uses for the surveillance of U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) — chief among ... (more)

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