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Friday, May 9, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
May 9, 2008 at 10:01 am ET
Markets are at a really interesting juncture. Let me take a stab. The most important thing I believe that’s going to drive the markets “should” be a top in the crude oil right around here. A declining oil price will probably drive the following: 1. Stock markets will probably go up and exceed the recent [...] ... (more)

From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
May 9, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
People are shopping more frugally as they should at Costco and Walmart, when the gasoline prices keep going up, and you can’t no longer charge everything on a maxed-out credit card. But I must warn you that Walmart is really a better store to shop if your family is small, and doesn’t consume volume of (the [...] ... (more)

Wednesday, May 7, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
May 7, 2008 at 10:00 am ET
Sorry, my site was down, and I couldn’t put up anything. This morning, Fed came out and talked empty about inflation threat. I don’t know why anyone is still listening to Fed, but nevertheless, PM complex went down by some 2%. My model would have generated a buy signal in about 2 days. [...] ... (more)

Monday, May 5, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
May 5, 2008 at 8:02 am ET
PM have reached my downside targets last week. If you have no stakes, it’s a great time to pick up some. But don’t expect a home run right away. ... (more)

From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
May 5, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
Microsoft is walking away from buying Yahoo. And I just don’t think there will be anyone buying up Yahoo except Microsoft. Next time Microsoft buys Yahoo, the offer may be at $20 instead for a $14 stock price. There are two big problems with Yahoo. 1. The best employees are deflecting to Google, which is [...] ... (more)

Sunday, May 4, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
May 4, 2008 at 12:59 pm ET
Bank of America (BAC) is saying the most unthinkable: it may not guarantee Countrywide’s debts after acquisitions. I have never heard such things. Buying a company without owning its debts?? What kind of deal is that? Well, since this deal was a downer for BAC in the very beginning, I would think that [...] ... (more)

Friday, May 2, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
May 2, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
Many people in California and other high cost living area has been waiting for the interest rate gap between jumbo loans and conforming loans to close. The interest rate gap is about 0.5% to 1.5%. However, it is very unlikely that the gap can go down to 0%. The biggest unintended consequences that I [...] ... (more)

Wednesday, April 30, 2008
HUI hammered (3 clicks)
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 30, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
PM sector is getting hammered yesterday. The MACD is way oversold. It’s possible that the low will be around 370. According to my own model, if the average value of HUI is roughly 390 for the next 12 days, it will trigger a buy signal. What this means is that the nightmare that [...] ... (more)

Tuesday, April 29, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 29, 2008 at 4:12 am ET
Economic stimulus is coming. And many retailers are looking for you to spend your check. In the recession, it’s a good time to spend money if you have it. Of course, the amount of my rebate check is $0. I’m not getting any. But it’s not like I’m making a lot more. [...] ... (more)

Monday, April 28, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 28, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
While doing this new budget, I was extremely impressed by the tools provided by the credit card companies. They have made the budgeting process so much easier that you no longer need to spend hours and hours trying to figure out where your money has gone. All of them provide spending by categories [...] ... (more)

Friday, April 25, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 25, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
As I have said back in March, I believe stock markets probably have temporarily turned the corner. However, precious metals are “fulfilling” their anti-market function, uncorrelating to the rise of markets, and falling. I’m tempted to say that HUI may bottom at around 370 to 400 level, which could be reached today. But even [...] ... (more)

Wednesday, April 23, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 23, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
You will be amazed on how fast these homes get sold. In a single day, some 500+ homes get sold. And you will be amazed too by the number of people in the crowd. Definitely, there are still way too many would-be speculators who want to pick up investing properties on the [...] ... (more)

Tuesday, April 22, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 22, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
The gasoline cost has been going up along with the crude oil prices. $4 seems to start to change the consumer’s behaviors from my personal observation. From my own budget made back in 2006, more than 2 years ago, I was only spending $160 a month for gasoline. Now, for the last 4 months, [...] ... (more)

Monday, April 21, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 21, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
Time after time, the only time that gold can drop by 2+% is during the open hours of London market and US markets. Majority of the time that it drops is right before US market opens, or 12pm EST in the US market. Don’t ask me why, but that’s the conclusion from my [...] ... (more)

Friday, April 18, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 18, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
I have said back in late March that the worst is probably behind us for this year. As the days go by, there has been an obvious bullish tint day in and day out. Are the stock bulls ready to go higher? Have the brokerages finished their accumulation? In the emerging market land, [...] ... (more)

Wednesday, April 16, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 16, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
I missed out quite big on the recent waves of the hot energy sectors, due to my belief in the global synchronized slowdown. Energy sectors however are still in play (so far). There are many sub-sectors in the energy. First it was coal, with FDG, PBT. Then it was natural gas, with CHK, [...] ... (more)

Tuesday, April 15, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 15, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
In two weeks of time, the bank reserves continue its swan dive. The whole banking system is now held and patched together by Federal Reserve. Without all the bailouts for the bankers, many banks should have gone under. Here is the data for the current bank reserve (click to go to Federal Reserve data), [...] ... (more)

Monday, April 14, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 14, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
Money or rather credit will be increasingly unavailable to many. This is the sign of the time going forward, probably at least for another 3 years. Look at the headlines: Linens’n Things files for bankruptcy. Aloha airlines files for bankruptcy. Frontier Airlines files for bankrupty protection. Borders Bookstore may put itself up for salfe after running short on cash. US [...] ... (more)

Friday, April 11, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 11, 2008 at 10:12 am ET
I’ve got out my longs yesterday. Next week we will have some major financial companies reporting. It’s best to simply stand on the sideline. I don’t think it will test the previous low, but it may not be pretty either. Best luck. ... (more)

From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 11, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
My trading model just triggered a buy signal on HUI index at the Thursday closing. Going all the way back to 1996, this signal is only right about 60% of the time, but has performed well through the bear market from 1996 to 2001, and the bull market from 2001 till now. But I still [...] ... (more)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 9, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
I saw a big typo in the headline by Greenspan. He said “The Fed is blameless on the property bubble“. Actually it should be “The Fed is SHAMEless on the the property bubble”. Just thought that I should share my thoughts here: If a ship (economy) goes down that quickly right after the captain took [...] ... (more)

Tuesday, April 8, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 8, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
Watching how Teri shops is just amazing. I thought it’s hard to find someone like my wife who really can get grocery deals thru usage of coupons. But Teri is a couple of steps beyond. I saw the TV program for TheGroceryGame.Com. She walked out of the grocery store, paying only about $80 [...] ... (more)

Monday, April 7, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 7, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
This is going to be a short message. I caught a flu, so I’m going to be short. I think there may be another lower low ahead of us. Buy that low. Don’t get in yet. It’s still quite dangerous. Right now, it’s probably best to stay in cash or short-term treasury bonds. Don’t [...] ... (more)

Friday, April 4, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 4, 2008 at 6:09 am ET
I have been worried about the global food supply, and I called up one of my friends who is an owner of an agricultural food import/export business. ... (more)

Wednesday, April 2, 2008
From My 1st Million at 33 - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 2, 2008 at 8:01 am ET
I can’t believe that it will take me many many thousands of dollars of loss to bury my head into my own mathematical trading model which has told me to sell. I only wish I can trade full time. This gold correction is definitely going to last quite a while. I guess what’s most [...] ... (more)

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