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From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 10, 2008 at 9:44 am ET
The sentiment landscape has changed much from just a month ago:
Sentiment Surveys
The AAII sentiment survey came in this week at 53% bulls - unchanged from last week. Not only is this a very high bullish ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 9, 2008 at 7:54 pm ET
It never ceases to amaze me just how horribly wrong regular people are as a group when it comes to timing the market. There is a whole cottage industry around trying to gauge their sentiment ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 8, 2008 at 8:08 pm ET
I’ve updated the list of social networking website devoted to trading/investing:
Cake Financial
MarketGuru
Mint
Wikinvest
Is this completely new to you? Then you are in for a treat! Think of it as facebook meets Wall St.
If you are already ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 8, 2008 at 9:01 am ET
The market is bumping its head against a resistance range from 1400 to 1450. This area was of course, support just a few months back.
Starting from April 18th, I noticed a change in the market ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 7, 2008 at 8:34 pm ET
Market breadth is what goes on inside the stock market. Most people pay attention to price, like the Dow or S&P 500 index. Market breadth looks at the number of stocks that are advancing or ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 6, 2008 at 8:09 pm ET
Last summer I pontificated about the future of Apple Inc. (AAPL) wondering if it was time to sell:
All the smart and “hot” money has been trading it and riding it higher. And you can bet ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 5, 2008 at 4:44 pm ET
Here’s yet another market indicator which is suggesting caution. I’ve been noticing these pop up for a while now. And although we have now broken above the problematic resistance level of 1400, there are several ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 3, 2008 at 7:11 pm ET
Here is the lay of the sentiment land for the week:
Barron’s Institutional Survey
According to the latest Barron’s “Big Money Poll”, the professional investors are fairly bullish but not excited about stocks (see graph). But ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 2, 2008 at 2:20 pm ET
You know how, when you’re walking a dog it pays no attention to the path or sidewalk and instead, driven by the instinct to collect and archive as many smells as possible, zig-zags to the ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 2, 2008 at 11:22 am ET
In an attempt to thoroughly confuse my remaining few readers, here are two polar takes on the market:
Seasonality
The best time to be long the stock market has been from November to the end of April. ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMay 1, 2008 at 10:09 pm ET
If you are trying to time the stock market, you obviously have to take a look at and analyze the stock market. But a little followed, indicator that has nothing to do with the stock ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 30, 2008 at 12:51 pm ET
Yes, this is about #2. At least the chemical equivalent. So let’s get the jokes out of the way first…
Whenever one stock grows enough to represent an inordinately large percentage of the index it belongs ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 29, 2008 at 8:09 am ET
Here’s yet another metric showing that the market may be approaching overbought conditions:
For those unfamiliar with this indicator, it is the percentage of stocks within the S&P 500 Index (SPX) which are trading above their ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 28, 2008 at 8:35 pm ET
As a technical analyst, I normally look at price action exclusively but volume is undeniably, another important element of the market. I’m a bit reluctant to delve into the concept of volume because a lot ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 26, 2008 at 7:30 pm ET
Here is this past week’s important sentiment data:
Stock Timing Newsletters
The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) was at 27.5% at the start of the week. Meaning that the average stock timing newsletter was recommending to ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 25, 2008 at 9:25 pm ET
Almost a year ago I asked rhetorically, is the REIT bull market over? My own take on it at the time was that what we were seeing was yet another correction and not a top, ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 23, 2008 at 9:52 pm ET
Let’s take a look back at my previous commentary on Canadian REITs’ oversold condition on June 27th, 2007. Yup, it is report card time!
Unlike many other trading bloggers who let previous calls drift into the ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 23, 2008 at 1:54 am ET
In last week’s sentiment overview I mentioned some troubling signs were appearing on the horizon. For one, we were once again just below the 1400 level on the S&P 500 index.
But that this important ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 21, 2008 at 6:58 pm ET
Although I was early, my skepticism about the growth story of Crocs (CROX) turned out to be right on the money.
The dream turned into a nightmare for the longs with an almost 40% gap down ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 18, 2008 at 4:37 pm ET
This week the markets were propelled ahead by the positive earnings of major tech companies like Intel (INTC) and Google (GOOG). Here is the sentiment summary:
Sentiment Surveys
Investor’s Intelligence results are basically unchanged so no need ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 17, 2008 at 8:41 pm ET
Although I’ve previously touched on the predictive quality of the IPO market, I wanted to bring it up again because what last year was a slow trickle has now dried up to an outright drought.
So ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 16, 2008 at 8:35 pm ET
According to seasonality, we are coming into the time of the year when it has historically been a good time to be long bonds:
But seasonality isn’t everything. It is only one piece of the puzzle ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 15, 2008 at 9:51 pm ET
While the Chinese stock market bubble was brewing, a lot of people ignored it and frothed at the mouth about the over-valuation in the US market.
In keeping with that odd behaviour, while the US market ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 14, 2008 at 9:39 pm ET
While the transportation sector has been going strong, the airline industry - a sub-sector of transports - is scraping the bottom of the graph at multi-year lows.
Imagine how well the transportation index would be doing ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 12, 2008 at 10:27 pm ET
Everything seemed to be going alright and then GE came along and whacked the markets with their largest earnings miss in at least three years.
Any way you cut it, Friday was a horrible day (for ... ( more)
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