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Tuesday, December 11, 2007
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blog
December 11, 2007 at 3:22 pm ET
So the Fed came in with a 25 basis point cut, as expected by the markets, and everything went to hell in a hand basket. Hmm, I wonder if you can tell when, exactly, the ... (more)

Monday, December 10, 2007
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December 10, 2007 at 8:25 pm ET
Here is the latest video commentary by Tony Oz: Apple is at a new 52 week high - is the Dow next? Take a look at his analysis. He covers Apple and the general market indices as ... (more)

Sunday, December 9, 2007
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December 9, 2007 at 6:13 pm ET
With the impending FOMC decision, traders are going to be twitchy and nervous. Although a 25 basis point cut is baked in, until we get confirmation, the market will probably not trend. If you’ve been reading ... (more)

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December 9, 2007 at 3:47 pm ET
If you’ve surfed the web for any significant amount, you’ve encountered this image at least a dozen times already: Hint: it is a major website. background image, internet, mystery, website ... (more)

Thursday, December 6, 2007
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December 6, 2007 at 10:26 pm ET
Last week something quite remarkable happened. We saw an almost back to back buying frenzy in the markets which pushed the internal breadth into the stratosphere. How explosive was it? On the NYSE, 90-95% of the ... (more)

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December 6, 2007 at 2:36 pm ET
As I mentioned a few days ago, my gut instinct tells me that the major central banks are about to turn and enter into an easing cycle. The Australian monetary authority and their European counterparts ... (more)

Wednesday, December 5, 2007
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December 5, 2007 at 8:59 pm ET
According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, stock timing newsletter editors en masse abandoned the market as the October highs melted into November losses. Back in October, as the market was making a swing high, newsletters recommended ... (more)

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December 5, 2007 at 12:48 am ET
According to sentiment, it is time to sell bonds (and buy stocks). Bond Market Sentiment A few days ago the Hulbert Bond Newsletter Sentiment Index reached 47.4% — that’s four times the average sentiment over the past ... (more)

Tuesday, December 4, 2007
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December 4, 2007 at 10:21 pm ET
The last time I visited the transport sector was in mid August when the whole market was making its intermediate low. Like many sectors, the transportation sector had an extremely low bullish percent index. It ... (more)

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December 4, 2007 at 10:08 pm ET
More or less, the world’s central banks operate in concert with one another, often even cooperating hand in hand to help each other (whether it is in setting interest rates or foreign currency interventions). Today the ... (more)

Monday, December 3, 2007
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December 3, 2007 at 7:24 pm ET
My previous position on gold has been wrong. At least so far. I didn’t think it would punch through the resistance at $725 but there it is, firmly established above that level now. So take ... (more)

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December 3, 2007 at 6:03 pm ET
Paul Krugman writes in today’s New York Times: How bad is it? Well, I’ve never seen financial insiders this spooked — not even during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, when economic dominoes seemed to be falling ... (more)

Friday, November 30, 2007
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November 30, 2007 at 6:34 pm ET
Here’s the sentiment recap for this past week: AAII Although the participants fill out this survey after the market closes on Wednesdays, the AAII this week actually showed an increase in bearish sentiment. Considering that we had ... (more)

Thursday, November 29, 2007
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November 29, 2007 at 7:47 pm ET
On average, most of the annual returns in the stock market come from the last few months plus January. This goes by the name of the January effect and other labels. But so far this year, ... (more)

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November 29, 2007 at 7:25 pm ET
Around the time that the internet bubble burst, small caps started to outperform large cap stocks. And they continued to do so through the bear market and the subsequent bull market. Now it seems that large ... (more)

Wednesday, November 28, 2007
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November 28, 2007 at 1:15 pm ET
At the end of July I mentioned that it was time to consider the battered financial sector. Back then, the bullish percent chart for the sector approached 25%, a level which usually means oversold. But ... (more)

Tuesday, November 27, 2007
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November 27, 2007 at 4:05 pm ET
According to the simple stock market timing method which relies on the 30 day rate of change of the 10 year treasury bonds, we are very oversold and should expect a rebound here. This system is ... (more)

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November 27, 2007 at 3:39 pm ET
The Federal Reserve continues to play catch up with the bond market. But with each successive rate cut, the fixed income market continues to stay one step ahead. We still have an almost 150 basis point ... (more)

Monday, November 26, 2007
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November 26, 2007 at 4:09 pm ET
Today’s market really tests any bullish resolve that may have developed over the weekend. The financials were especially hit hard due to reported layoffs at Citigroup (C) - the shares hit a five year low. As ... (more)

Friday, November 23, 2007
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November 23, 2007 at 5:52 pm ET
The most recent consumer sentiment numbers from Reuters and the University of Michigan show an extreme pessimism. To be exact, in October, the “current conditions index” dropped to 91.0 while the “expected index” fell to ... (more)

Thursday, November 22, 2007
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November 22, 2007 at 5:02 pm ET
Things are getting very stretched towards the downside and the bears are having too easy a time. That is about to change if history is any guide. The number of lows has ballooned to critical levels ... (more)

Wednesday, November 21, 2007
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November 21, 2007 at 7:51 pm ET
On light volume, the market closed strongly down today ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The action brought about an acceleration in the number of new lows (52 week) relative to the number of new ... (more)

Tuesday, November 20, 2007
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blog
November 20, 2007 at 8:43 pm ET
I know this is a bit late but lets cover last week’s sentiment landscape: Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment According to Mark Hulbert, there is a stark contrast in the land of newsletters. The newsletters with the ... (more)

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November 20, 2007 at 7:27 pm ET
Interesting article on Goldman Sachs’ “luck” in escaping unscathed from the sub-prime mortgage mess: Goldman’s good fortune cannot be explained by luck alone. Late last year, as the markets roared along, David A. Viniar, Goldman’s chief ... (more)

Monday, November 19, 2007
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November 19, 2007 at 8:02 am ET
According to Peter Brimlow from Marketwatch, the last bullish newsletter has abandoned China. The newsletter, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, has been the biggest bull riding the bull market in the far east to ... (more)

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