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From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 10, 2008 at 6:40 am ET
This is just a quick follow up. For further details see my first message from last summer on the I/B/E/S Valuation Model for the stock exchange.
What’s amazing is that according to this model, we ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 9, 2008 at 5:53 pm ET
Financial stocks have been getting pummeled. And no expletive does the price action justice, especially if you’ve been long any of them as I have.
The problem is that no level of oversold seems to bring ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 9, 2008 at 6:42 am ET
Why wait till it is over like the National Bureau of Economic Research does?
I’m officially announcing it: we are in a recession.
No, not because of the ISM report but because of this little factoid:
And ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 8, 2008 at 6:39 pm ET
During the cyclical bull market that started in early 2003, every time the market penetrated its long term moving average, it ricocheted off like a smooth pebble off a lake.
In hindsight, it looks quite orderly ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 7, 2008 at 5:29 am ET
The market got a slap upside the head to end the trading week. Relentless selling took the Nasdaq down by 3.77% and the S&P 500 Index by 2.46%.
At the NYSE, over 93% of the ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 6, 2008 at 8:40 pm ET
I was busy on Friday and couldn’t post this at the usual time. Here is the weekly sentiment roundup:
Sentiment Surveys
Fear gripped the respondents to the AAII survey last week as bullishness plunged to 26% (from ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 4, 2008 at 8:15 am ET
The pundits are blaming the market’s stumble on Wednesday on the surprising reduction in the US manufacturing base - as measured by the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM).
The ISM index fell to 47.7 - its ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 3, 2008 at 5:14 pm ET
You wake up, you sleep. The sun rises, it sets. The seasons change. Cycles are part of life.
Since the stock market is just another human activity, it too has patterns and cycles. There are ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 2, 2008 at 8:06 am ET
Maybe it was too much bubbly and partying over the holidays that got the retail options traders just a tad too giddy for their own good.
It’s not surprising to see the market falter heading into ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 1, 2008 at 8:17 pm ET
To ring in the new year, Spreadshirt is offering 20.08% off all their products.
Get it? 20.08%?
All you have to do is use the coupon code: “newyear08″ (for Canadians: “cadnewyear08″)
You can get some really ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 1, 2008 at 8:08 pm ET
Everyone these days pays at least some attention to sentiment. Which means that the usual sentiment indicators run the risk of becoming saturated with attention, and therefore less
Which is why I love finding novel ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 31, 2007 at 11:04 am ET
Well, it is the end of another year. And if you are a trader, your thoughts turn invariably to the January effect and more specifically, how you can use this phenomenal annual pattern to generate ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 26, 2007 at 9:21 am ET
Want to see something that will knock your socks off?
US Financial Stress Index
The BCA US Financial Stress Index (left) is a proprietary and nutritious blend of these econometric and statistical ingredients:
performance of bank stocks relative ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 24, 2007 at 11:36 am ET
The stock market tends to move higher the day before and the three days after the Christmas holiday. While the S&P 500 gained an average of 0.035% per trading day since 1950, the S&P 500 ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 21, 2007 at 6:35 pm ET
Here’s this past week’s sentiment data:
Sentiment Surveys
Investor’s Intelligence (measuring the newsletter editors market bias) is showing a surprising amount of bullishness at 56.5%. This is a slight increase from last week. The II bears fell ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 21, 2007 at 6:12 pm ET
Let’s do a quick review of this week in the markets:
New High-Lows Indicator
I mentioned on Tuesday, the High-Low Indicator had fallen to less than 5%, flashing a bright red light signal for an inflection point. ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 20, 2007 at 7:31 pm ET
Most people assume automatically that a sustained interest rate cut campaign by the Federal Reserve has obvious consequences for the stock market, the dollar, commodities and gold.
The common line of thinking goes that interest rate ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 20, 2007 at 7:31 pm ET
Most people assume automatically that a sustained interest rate cut campaign by the Federal Reserve has obvious consequences for the stock market, the dollar, commodities and gold.
The common line of thinking goes that interest rate ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 19, 2007 at 7:09 pm ET
I didn’t lose any money in the implosion of E*Trade, but I still wanted to take a look at what happened from a technical analysis perspective to see if I could pick out any warning ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 18, 2007 at 8:20 pm ET
Let’s see if the new high-new low indicator can do it again.
About a month ago (November 21st to be exact) I noticed that the new high-new low indicator was flagging an inflection point in the ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 17, 2007 at 8:56 pm ET
This week the financial giants Goldman Sachs (GS), Bear Stearns (BSC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will be releasing their quarterly earnings reports.
I’ve been patient and hopeful with this sector since it has been showing the ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 16, 2007 at 2:36 pm ET
In case you’re looking for a broker or simply want to see how your current one stacks up against the competition:
Web-Based Brokers - Click to See Table:
Software-Based Brokers - Click to See Table:
Specialty Brokers - ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 14, 2007 at 8:52 pm ET
Here’s a quick recap of sentiment indicators for the past week as I saw them:
AAII Sentiment Survey
Retail investors are feeling rather cheeky with 48% bullish and only 36% bearish. Just a few weeks ago less ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 13, 2007 at 8:50 pm ET
So after the Fed cut rates as expected, and the market was miffed that it wouldn’t be enough to remedy the credit crisis wreaking havoc in the financial sector.
And then a day later the Fed ... ( more)
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