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From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 16, 2008 at 8:35 pm ET
According to seasonality, we are coming into the time of the year when it has historically been a good time to be long bonds:
But seasonality isn’t everything. It is only one piece of the puzzle ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 15, 2008 at 9:51 pm ET
While the Chinese stock market bubble was brewing, a lot of people ignored it and frothed at the mouth about the over-valuation in the US market.
In keeping with that odd behaviour, while the US market ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 14, 2008 at 9:39 pm ET
While the transportation sector has been going strong, the airline industry - a sub-sector of transports - is scraping the bottom of the graph at multi-year lows.
Imagine how well the transportation index would be doing ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 12, 2008 at 10:27 pm ET
Everything seemed to be going alright and then GE came along and whacked the markets with their largest earnings miss in at least three years.
Any way you cut it, Friday was a horrible day (for ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 12, 2008 at 8:45 pm ET
After flagellating myself for too much bearishness, the last time I wrote about the yellow metal I mentioned that I would be returning to it when it presenting a buying opportunity:
The best combination of breadth ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 10, 2008 at 8:18 pm ET
Who could have imagined that with crude oil at +$110, the transports would be one of the highest relative strength sectors out there?
Well, if the stock market was strictly logical we would have figured it ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 8, 2008 at 9:22 pm ET
The early March preliminary Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment survey results were bad enough, coming in at 70.5 and they got worse when they were finalized at 69.5 in late March.
“A recession has occurred whenever the Sentiment ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 7, 2008 at 8:15 pm ET
It looks like it is the end of the line for RedEnvelope (REDE). The company is mired in losses, their credit lines have been terminated, and they have sent most of their employees packing. While ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 6, 2008 at 6:21 pm ET
Alright, before we start the new trading week, here is the sentiment overview of the concluding week. There is little to write about because little has changed since the previous overview:
Sentiment Surveys
According to Investor’s Intelligence, ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 2, 2008 at 1:41 pm ET
Trading is deceptively simple.
After all, there are only 3 kinds of trades, and thanks to today’s technology, anyone with even a small amount of money can open an account, be linked to the exchanges and ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 1, 2008 at 8:05 pm ET
This was the best April Fool’s prank the bulls could have played on the bears!
Almost all the major indices finished up 3% or more. The semiconductors closed up more than 4%. The only thing to ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogApril 1, 2008 at 8:05 pm ET
This was the best April Fool’s prank the bulls could have played on the bears!
Almost all the major indices finished up 3% or more. The semiconductors closed up more than 4%. The only thing to ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 28, 2008 at 5:19 pm ET
This week sentiment recovered from the abyss into which it had fallen. This isn’t surprising considering the strong lift-off the market had last week. But even so, it doesn’t yet give us any reason ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 27, 2008 at 10:41 pm ET
Measuring the volume ratio of the Nasdaq and the NYSE goes back to the early days of technical analysis.
At its genesis, the Nasdaq was seen as a lesser exchange where smaller, younger and riskier ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 27, 2008 at 9:34 pm ET
I received this question from a reader (Jim) on March 13th, 2008:
I love your updates, please keep up the good work!
My question is the following: Obviously we are in one of the worst bear markets ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 21, 2008 at 11:46 am ET
We stared into the abyss and staring back at us was this week’s sentiment overview:
Investor’s Intelligence
I mentioned in last week’s sentiment overview the surprising bearishness of newsletter writers as measured by Chartcraft. This week they ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 20, 2008 at 7:22 pm ET
Amid all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, we had a successful IPO: Visa (V) went public yesterday and made history.
Not only was it a resounding success for the investment bankers in a very difficult ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 18, 2008 at 9:44 pm ET
So the Fed had a working weekend. On Sunday they cut the discount rate by a quarter percent to 3.25% and today, they cut the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points to 2.25%. The ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 18, 2008 at 8:13 pm ET
In mentioning a few reasons why we were seeing an intermediate bottom, I wrote last week, after Tuesday’s 90-90 day (March 12th, 2008):
The best scenario for the bulls would be another extremely strong day which ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 17, 2008 at 9:17 pm ET
Now that the Bear Stearns (BSC) saga has ended with their absorption into JP Morgan (JPM) for $2, I wanted to go back to the previous time that I looked at the stock, back when ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 17, 2008 at 8:34 pm ET
The magazine cover indicator is a great contrarian sentiment measure because once a topic has reached massive public penetration and put on the front cover of a magazine, the trend is about to finish.
But once ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 16, 2008 at 8:54 pm ET
If you every find yourself needing installment loans, ThinkCash is a short term, personal loan company which lends amounts from $250 to $2,500 for emergencies, bill payments or to avoid bouncing a check.
ThinkCash is different ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 14, 2008 at 10:34 pm ET
I have a nagging feeling this week will be one to remember. Whether it will be the bulls or the bears that will look on it fondly, only time knows. Here is this week’s unforgettable ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 14, 2008 at 10:32 pm ET
I use Interactive Brokers as my primary broker because of their price and offering but also because they consistently improve and add new features. They put the Japanese companies to shame when it comes to ... ( more)
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blogMarch 12, 2008 at 8:58 pm ET
Double Bottom Thesis
One of the technical patterns everyone has been watching for during the recent market action is one of the most common and well known ones: double bottoms.
Thanks to yesterday’s rocket ride, it ... ( more)
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