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Friday, April 25, 2008
From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blog
April 25, 2008 at 9:25 pm ET
Almost a year ago I asked rhetorically, is the REIT bull market over? My own take on it at the time was that what we were seeing was yet another correction and not a top, ... (more)

Wednesday, April 23, 2008
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April 23, 2008 at 9:52 pm ET
Let’s take a look back at my previous commentary on Canadian REITs’ oversold condition on June 27th, 2007. Yup, it is report card time! Unlike many other trading bloggers who let previous calls drift into the ... (more)

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April 23, 2008 at 1:54 am ET
In last week’s sentiment overview I mentioned some troubling signs were appearing on the horizon. For one, we were once again just below the 1400 level on the S&P 500 index. But that this important ... (more)

Monday, April 21, 2008
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April 21, 2008 at 6:58 pm ET
Although I was early, my skepticism about the growth story of Crocs (CROX) turned out to be right on the money. The dream turned into a nightmare for the longs with an almost 40% gap down ... (more)

Friday, April 18, 2008
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April 18, 2008 at 4:37 pm ET
This week the markets were propelled ahead by the positive earnings of major tech companies like Intel (INTC) and Google (GOOG). Here is the sentiment summary: Sentiment Surveys Investor’s Intelligence results are basically unchanged so no need ... (more)

Thursday, April 17, 2008
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April 17, 2008 at 8:41 pm ET
Although I’ve previously touched on the predictive quality of the IPO market, I wanted to bring it up again because what last year was a slow trickle has now dried up to an outright drought. So ... (more)

Wednesday, April 16, 2008
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April 16, 2008 at 8:35 pm ET
According to seasonality, we are coming into the time of the year when it has historically been a good time to be long bonds: But seasonality isn’t everything. It is only one piece of the puzzle ... (more)

Tuesday, April 15, 2008
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April 15, 2008 at 9:51 pm ET
While the Chinese stock market bubble was brewing, a lot of people ignored it and frothed at the mouth about the over-valuation in the US market. In keeping with that odd behaviour, while the US market ... (more)

Monday, April 14, 2008
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April 14, 2008 at 9:39 pm ET
While the transportation sector has been going strong, the airline industry - a sub-sector of transports - is scraping the bottom of the graph at multi-year lows. Imagine how well the transportation index would be doing ... (more)

Saturday, April 12, 2008
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April 12, 2008 at 10:27 pm ET
Everything seemed to be going alright and then GE came along and whacked the markets with their largest earnings miss in at least three years. Any way you cut it, Friday was a horrible day (for ... (more)

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April 12, 2008 at 8:45 pm ET
After flagellating myself for too much bearishness, the last time I wrote about the yellow metal I mentioned that I would be returning to it when it presenting a buying opportunity: The best combination of breadth ... (more)

Thursday, April 10, 2008
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April 10, 2008 at 8:18 pm ET
Who could have imagined that with crude oil at +$110, the transports would be one of the highest relative strength sectors out there? Well, if the stock market was strictly logical we would have figured it ... (more)

Tuesday, April 8, 2008
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April 8, 2008 at 9:22 pm ET
The early March preliminary Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment survey results were bad enough, coming in at 70.5 and they got worse when they were finalized at 69.5 in late March. “A recession has occurred whenever the Sentiment ... (more)

Monday, April 7, 2008
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April 7, 2008 at 8:15 pm ET
It looks like it is the end of the line for RedEnvelope (REDE). The company is mired in losses, their credit lines have been terminated, and they have sent most of their employees packing. While ... (more)

Sunday, April 6, 2008
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April 6, 2008 at 6:21 pm ET
Alright, before we start the new trading week, here is the sentiment overview of the concluding week. There is little to write about because little has changed since the previous overview: Sentiment Surveys According to Investor’s Intelligence, ... (more)

Wednesday, April 2, 2008
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April 2, 2008 at 1:41 pm ET
Trading is deceptively simple. After all, there are only 3 kinds of trades, and thanks to today’s technology, anyone with even a small amount of money can open an account, be linked to the exchanges and ... (more)

Tuesday, April 1, 2008
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April 1, 2008 at 8:05 pm ET
This was the best April Fool’s prank the bulls could have played on the bears! Almost all the major indices finished up 3% or more. The semiconductors closed up more than 4%. The only thing to ... (more)

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April 1, 2008 at 8:05 pm ET
This was the best April Fool’s prank the bulls could have played on the bears! Almost all the major indices finished up 3% or more. The semiconductors closed up more than 4%. The only thing to ... (more)

Friday, March 28, 2008
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March 28, 2008 at 5:19 pm ET
This week sentiment recovered from the abyss into which it had fallen. This isn’t surprising considering the strong lift-off the market had last week. But even so, it doesn’t yet give us any reason ... (more)

Thursday, March 27, 2008
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March 27, 2008 at 10:41 pm ET
Measuring the volume ratio of the Nasdaq and the NYSE goes back to the early days of technical analysis. At its genesis, the Nasdaq was seen as a lesser exchange where smaller, younger and riskier ... (more)

From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blog
March 27, 2008 at 9:34 pm ET
I received this question from a reader (Jim) on March 13th, 2008: I love your updates, please keep up the good work! My question is the following: Obviously we are in one of the worst bear markets ... (more)

Friday, March 21, 2008
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March 21, 2008 at 11:46 am ET
We stared into the abyss and staring back at us was this week’s sentiment overview: Investor’s Intelligence I mentioned in last week’s sentiment overview the surprising bearishness of newsletter writers as measured by Chartcraft. This week they ... (more)

Thursday, March 20, 2008
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March 20, 2008 at 7:22 pm ET
Amid all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, we had a successful IPO: Visa (V) went public yesterday and made history. Not only was it a resounding success for the investment bankers in a very difficult ... (more)

Tuesday, March 18, 2008
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March 18, 2008 at 9:44 pm ET
So the Fed had a working weekend. On Sunday they cut the discount rate by a quarter percent to 3.25% and today, they cut the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points to 2.25%. The ... (more)

From Trader's Narrative - view blog entries - visit this blog
March 18, 2008 at 8:13 pm ET
In mentioning a few reasons why we were seeing an intermediate bottom, I wrote last week, after Tuesday’s 90-90 day (March 12th, 2008): The best scenario for the bulls would be another extremely strong day which ... (more)

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