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From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 31, 2008 at 2:33 pm ET
Elevated volatility indexes on average favor the bulls, so putting on shorts at such levels is a low probability trade. If you are a bear, better to wait for VIX etc. to drop below the ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 30, 2008 at 2:23 pm ET
With volatility levels so high, this SAR opportunity does not make much sense, I'll wait for this upthrust to end before taking any action. But for the moment the markets like the cut, and since ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 28, 2008 at 2:44 pm ET
There is some hope of more rate cuts on Wednesday (see Bloomberg story), but since we are in confirmed downtrend, how far will this latest rally go? Energy and financials are doing quite well today. ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 24, 2008 at 2:44 pm ET
While waiting for the next SAR opportunity (as this bounce looks weak), here's some good reading about the rogue trader at Société Générale that accumulated losses of more than $7.2bn:Bloomberg: "a computer genius"FT.com: ShockGenBank Systems ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 22, 2008 at 2:29 pm ET
What a humongous gap down on the open! And those who faded it, whether going long or covering shorts must be quite happy bunnies right now. In case you have been hiding under a rock, ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 17, 2008 at 4:32 pm ET
I think I got my stories mixed up, it was actually a British Airways 777 plane that crashed on landing at London's Heathrow airport, injuring 11 people. But other headlines are just as bad: U.S. ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 15, 2008 at 5:47 pm ET
Matt, I think you are right, this downtrend is still not exhausted. Recent market action has not confirmed the beginning of a bounce. Each day that closes higher is followed by bigger losses the next ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 14, 2008 at 2:49 pm ET
Today IBM gave the bears a run for their mullahs. Tomorrow Citigroup will be in focus. Right now I still favor the long side, but financials will be deciding direction tomorrow. If Citigroup news is ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 10, 2008 at 3:09 pm ET
In the last 3 days I have commented on the over-sold levels and the expectations of a bounce. Of course on cue the Fed comes along to help things move along nicely (as usual):"Policy easing ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 9, 2008 at 2:56 pm ET
and foreign earnings of US corporations. Gary, you have to agree that a strong dollar would be a disaster for US economy. The weaker the better. So I conclude that rate cuts is the way ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 7, 2008 at 3:31 pm ET
I just do not see it happening soon, but you never know! As for the equity markets, we seem to have slowed the sell-off somewhat, with PCR and VIX at elevated levels. I expect at ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 4, 2008 at 2:04 pm ET
Volatility indexes have not moved much even as markets drop 2-3% across the board. Semis hit hardest, small caps and financials also take it on the chin. Officially this looks like SAR works better than ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogJanuary 2, 2008 at 5:46 pm ET
The question is, will rising crude lift the markets or sink them? In the past few years the markets have loved rising crude, I think there is no reason to assume this is not going ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 21, 2007 at 5:10 am ET
Have a Kit-Kat! See you all in the New Year when I'll get back to some serious blogging on the markets. It's always a good idea to take a break and look around you, appreciate ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 18, 2007 at 2:10 pm ET
It was only last April when John Kosar, the president of Asbury Research, insisted that anyone with a pencil and ruler could prove the 25-year bull market in Treasury bonds was over. Kosar said then ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 17, 2007 at 2:17 pm ET
This man has seen the future: "I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008. For every percentage point that stock returns fall below 8% (my prediction) this year, they should ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 15, 2007 at 6:02 am ET
U.S. stocks fell, completing the steepest weekly drop in a month, after accelerating inflation spurred concern that higher prices will curb consumer spending and give the Federal Reserve less leeway to cut interest rates. - ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 11, 2007 at 3:18 pm ET
VIX was stretched too far below 10dma while PCR was kind of non-committal. I suspect this drop is not the real McCoy, I would guess the bears need to be frustrated with a Christmas Rally ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 9, 2007 at 3:29 pm ET
Looks like nothing is gonna derail retail shopping: "Sales at U.S. retailers probably rose in November as discounts and wage gains helped Americans cope with near-record fuel costs, economists said before reports this week." - ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 6, 2007 at 3:39 pm ET
Bulls are getting ready for Fed decision Dec 11th: "U.S. stocks climbed for a second day, led by financial companies and builders, on expectations a government plan to limit subprime mortgage defaults will boost bank ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 4, 2007 at 3:04 pm ET
U.S. stocks fell for a second day after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said deteriorating credit markets will reduce profits at the four biggest securities firms, while lower oil prices dimmed the earnings outlook for energy ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 3, 2007 at 6:05 pm ET
US intelligence has downgraded its assessment of the risks posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions with a surprise declaration on Monday that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and may not have restarted it. ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogDecember 2, 2007 at 2:35 pm ET
Vivendi is to take control of Activision of the US through an alliance that would create the world’s biggest video games publisher. If approved by Activision shareholders, the first stage of the alliance would involve ... ( more)
From The Lauriston Letter - view blog entries - visit this blogNovember 29, 2007 at 4:00 pm ET
Once the end-of-month shenanigans are over, there may not be much to hang your hat on this rally: "The U.S. economy is faltering after a third-quarter expansion as new-home prices dropped the most since 1970 ... ( more)
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