http://pfblogs.org/re/ Delivering all the personal finance blogs you can handle -- and then some. contact@pfblogs.org en-us Copyright 2008 2008-05-13T22:42:55-05:00 http://pfblogs.org/ Today, May 13, 2008, in San Francisco, California for unfair competition, trademark infringement, false advertising and breach of fiduciary duty.  Craig wants a jury trial and eBay profits.  Last... Thanks for subscribing to our feed. If you want more, please click on the headline. Thank you! ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100468 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100468 Sellsius 2008-05-13T22:42:55-05:00 · Latest on that Mt. Baldy fire--300 acres burned [Mercury News] · Bad tire slashing day for San Pedro [Daily Breeze] · Foreclosures in California: You see 1,000 a day [LA Land] · Are big dogs banned at Americana At... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100457 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100457 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T22:26:36-05:00 Would you use a realtor if they worked for an hourly wage, versus trying to steal your money by taking a percentage of the sale?If so, how much per hour do you think their work is worth? (you know, unlocking those lock boxes, printing things off the internet, pointing out the granite countertops...) ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100461 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100461 Housing Panic 2008-05-13T22:22:00-05:00 I've gotta give it up for West Virgina. Now THAT'S an interesting state... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100454 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100454 Housing Panic 2008-05-13T22:21:57-05:00 Brian Linder, founder and president of real estate firm Value of Architecture, informs Curbed that the Richard Neutra-designed Palm Springs Kaufmann House, which was on the auction block this afternoon at Christie's Post War & Contemporary Art sale, sold... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100458 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100458 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T22:03:08-05:00 In Part 2, we introduced the scenario of “The Flip” in which there is a “strawman” established in the middle of a transaction between seller and strawman, and another between strawman and buyer.  In this third article of the series, we’ll introduce a scenario dubbed “The Old Switch.”read more ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100442 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100442 RealBlogging 2008-05-13T21:10:00-05:00 HOLLYWOOD: Ground-breaking fun. The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) broke ground last week on an addition to their clubhouse, located at Orange and Franklin Avenues. "The oldest continuously-operating motion picture society in the world, the ASC was chartered in... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100436 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100436 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T21:05:33-05:00 We're in a sticky situation, kids. The State's budget deficit isn't getting any smaller, and creative thinkers in Sac-town are stumped. However, an Assemblyman from Montebello has found a potential new source of revenue to pay for necessities, like education... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100417 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100417 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T20:25:24-05:00 &set=72157605046553223">?o=0'>?o=0' style='font-size: 9px; text-align: center;'>Click the image above to view the full photogallery. Just across the street and up a bit from LA Live's new sidewalk and tree-planting is South Park's luxe rental tower at 717 Olympic—-and yes, the long-unpassable... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100418 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100418 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T20:12:42-05:00 From Peter Viles at the LA Times: Foreclosure flood: 1,000 auctions per day in California The April total of foreclosure sales at auction -- 22,838 for the state -- represents a jump of 44% over March totals and the highest level ever in California, ForeclosureRadar reports....It appears the pipeline of potential foreclosures is jampacked, too: the ForeclosureRadar reported 44,101 new "Notices of Default" filings in April, a new record for California. Notices of Default are the first step in the foreclosure process.I've been tracking the quarterly data from DataQuick, and this monthly data suggests the graph from this earlier post was very conservative! (graph repeated) Click on graph for larger image.For 2008, the number of NODs was estimated at 4 times the Q1 rate. Based on recent experience - with NODs increasing every quarter for the last 3 years - this is probably conservative.As bad as 2007 was, 2008 will be much much worse. ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100414 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100414 Calculated Risk 2008-05-13T20:04:00-05:00 &set=72157605042006938">?o=0'>?o=0' style='font-size: 9px; text-align: center;'>Click the image above to view the full photogallery. It's been at least since September 2007 since the Lady of the Lake statue, the matriarch of Echo Park Lake, mysteriously lost a hand. And while the... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100386 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100386 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T19:35:16-05:00 While the tree carnage in Santa Monica continues unabated, across town there's another tree debate brewing. In front of the ESPN building in LA Live, construction workers are getting ready to plant a double row on trees. What should go... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100378 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100378 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T19:12:10-05:00 &set=72157605038023434">?o=0'>?o=0' style='font-size: 9px; text-align: center;'>Click the image above to view the full photogallery. This Hollywood Hills post and beam house designed by midcentury firm Buff & Hensman just hit the MLS. Listed as the "Ajioka house" (although we couldn't find... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100364 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100364 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T19:02:22-05:00 Thank you for your new questions this week. Please feel free to email us at la@curbed.com or leave a comment if you have an answer to these questions submitted by your neighbors. 1) Hollywood: Quite simply, why can't Scientologists complete... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100365 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100365 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T18:46:16-05:00 mariogg7.jpg (JPEG Image, 528×1392 pixels) Time to buy some bannana’s (tags: humor satire) Belief in God ‘childish,’ Jews not chosen people: Einstein letter Einstein boots religion, about time! (tags: philosophy religion) Post from: Neural Market Trends links for 2008-05-13 ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100350 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100350 Neural Market Trends 2008-05-13T18:33:41-05:00 [The theater, in happier Rendering/Reality days] Downtown's ImaginAsian Center, the new movie theater and arts space at 251 South Main Street, has been listed for $5.7 million. "The owners are entertaining offers from individuals or companies that would be... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100349 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100349 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T18:29:44-05:00 I suspect two things are about to happen: 1) You’ll see a post about this on virtually every Phoenix real estate blog and an article in every local newspaper. (Probably already happening, I haven’t read anything today) 2) The mainstream media (MSM) will minimize if not ignore the good and highlight the bad. (I know, what a shocking prediction.) The What: [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100347 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100347 Phoenix Real Estate Guy 2008-05-13T18:20:38-05:00 The Daily Press reports from California. “Nearly three in four local homes sold in April were foreclosures, as prices of existing homes dipped 2.6 percent for the month, according to a new report. Among the 3,400 existing homes currently for sale in the Victor Valley, 279 homes sold in April, a 23 percent jump from [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100323 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100323 The Housing Bubble 2008-05-13T18:03:49-05:00 Downtown's Little Tokyo Lofts had a starring role in last night's season finale of The Hills, MTV's "reality" soapfest that chronicles the lives of four rich chicks in LA. The show's lone brunette, Audrina Patridge (along and her boyfriend... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100332 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100332 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T17:56:02-05:00 [Taking out the trash on 14th Street, via NYC Blog?!] · Durst and Vornado say they'd jump back into Hudson Yards bidding [Crain's] · Speaking of, Vornado has spent $34.2M on Moynihan Station. On what? [TRE] · National Association of Realtors puts on a happy face for bad numbers [Hot Prop] · The UES has gone glass, people, and it's selling like hotcakes! [A Fine] · Debate already heated about Long Island City Jesuscondo [StreetEasy] · Notable Leroy Street townhouse with 'grassy roofs' sells for $13.82M [TRD] · Check out The Breakers, Sheepshead Bay's new gated community [GerritsenBeach] · 80 Metropolitan now 25% sold, full of fortysomething Manhattan ex-pats ['Stoner] · Shocker: vacant land value soared between 1999 and 2006 [City Room] ·... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100314 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100314 Curbed 2008-05-13T17:26:31-05:00 Spring is here and summer is coming so it is time to clean off those decks to create a place worthy of entertaining guests! Your deck has been buried by mounds of snow, piles of leaves or a bunch of clutter all winter long.  Those in the warmer climates might think they don’t need to care [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100267 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100267 FSBO Jane 2008-05-13T17:13:11-05:00 SOHO—Brooklyn is not the only borough getting some snazzy new bike lanes, of course. A Curbed correspondent sends the above photos from Prince Street, where a brand new bike lane is, for the moment at least, minty green. Do recall that Prince Street may also become car-free on summer Sundays. Some wacky stuff going on down there. [CurbedWire Inbox] FAR WEST VILLAGE—In addition to giving the go-ahead to the extended Noho Historic District, the Landmarks Preservation Commission also voted to calender 110-112 Horatio Street, the former Devoe Paint Factory just south of MePa. Writes the GVSHP: "The building is one of eight individual landmarks the LPC promised to designate in the Far West Village in 2005 in response to the push for extension of landmark and zoning protections in the area led by GVSHP. The Keller Hotel, 159 Charles Street, and 354 West 11th Street were designated in March of last year, while Westbeth, Charles Lane, and 370 and 372 West 11th Street are the four remaining promised individual landmark designations which the LPC has not yet acted upon." [CurbedWire Inbox]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100275 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100275 Curbed 2008-05-13T17:05:59-05:00 &set=72157605044317139">?o=0'>?o=0' style='font-size: 9px; text-align: center;'>Click the image above to view the full photogallery. Slated to be completed by December, Koreatown's Solair, located on Wilshire Boulevard, soldiers on. As previously noted, there's a big sign noting that the building---which is selling... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100277 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100277 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T17:01:40-05:00 From Bloomberg: MBIA, Ambac Losses Elevate Aaa Concern, Moody's Says MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. had ``meaningfully'' higher losses on home-equity loans and collateralized debt obligations than anticipated, raising concern about their Aaa status, Moody's Investors Service said. The first-quarter losses reported by the companies in the past two weeks elevate ``existing concerns about capitalization levels relative to the Aaa benchmark,'' Moody's, unit of Moody's Corp., said in a statement today. Moody's also issued a report today on second liens: U.S. Subprime Second Lien RMBS Rating Actions Update (no link). Moody's noted that losses to date have "greatly exceeded" their expectations, and Moody's increased their loss projections: ... Moody's has increased its loss projections on loan pools backing recent vintage subprime second lien RMBS in light of their continued poor performance. Moody's expects 2005 vintage subprime second lien pools to lose 17% on average, 2006 vintage pools to lose 42% on average, and 2007 pools to lose 45% on average. Ouch! ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100310 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100310 Calculated Risk 2008-05-13T16:56:00-05:00 Well even with the housing market’s collapse and the stock market’s tumble at least some people are still rich. That’s according to the latest data from the market research firm TNS. The number of households with over $1 million... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100348 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100348 Hot Property 2008-05-13T16:52:37-05:00 "Real World Williamsburg: trust funders paying $2,000 on an outfit that looks 2nd hand. $1.5MM condo. Drink PBR at the bar. Then back to the condo for a metrosexual coke fueled orgy while listening to an indie band on the Ipod docking station. Recycle junior year art project for show in Bushwick." [Real World Really Coming to Brooklyn]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100276 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100276 Curbed 2008-05-13T16:51:21-05:00 Last week, a post about a traffic light getting mowed down at Broadway and Bedford Avenue in Williamsburg drew an e-mail from another reader who noted that work is underway to add bike lanes and medians to the street. It's actually part of a number of changes in the neighborhood, including the installation of a major number of traffic lights. As for the Broadway redo, a reader writes: "I thought it was a whole repaving and traffic-island making. After a bit of research it looks like Broadway between Bedford and Kent will become a greenway." Well, it's going to have a big planted median, two bike lanes and one lane of traffic in each direction.... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100254 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100254 Curbed 2008-05-13T16:20:49-05:00 What do 239 N. 9 Street, 261 N. 9 Street and 120 S. 4 Street in Williamsburg have in common? If you guessed Hot Karl Fischer--whose S. 4 Street building is in the rendering above--you have an important part of the answer. But not the only one. New York Shitty notes that the buildings, which will have a couple of hundred units between them, are being developed by one of the co-owners of the Greenpoint Hotel, which is most notable for its, um, sometimes unsavory living conditions. The 239 N. 9 building has had some safety issues and was the site of some anti-gentrification graffiti we caught last week. The S. 4 Street building, which is at the corner of Bedford Avenue and has another Greenpoint Hotel-related building, the Rocket Factory as its neighbor, just started up again after being an abandoned site for more than a year. To round out the picture, the same developer is planning a hotel--though whether it's a boutique or something else is unknown--next to another nabe favorite, Studio B. No word on whether Hot Karl is doing the renovations on that one. · Searching for 80 Clay Street [New York Shitty] · More Fun ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100229 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100229 Curbed 2008-05-13T16:02:11-05:00 Street artist/OBEY brand overlord Shepard Fairey put up one of his Barack Obama posters on the corner of Houston and Bowery, next to the repainted Keith Haring mural. Fine and dandy, but he put it over the work of longtime LES graffiti staple MARTY, who then painted right over Obama in broad daylight. Then, in a really strange twist, an Obama-supporting buff squad removed the graffiti. Just another spring afternoon on the Bowery. [Razor Apple]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100230 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100230 Curbed 2008-05-13T15:46:29-05:00 I believe it's time for Yun to step aside. Just another sad chapter from the National Association of REALTORS on COMMISSION. Yun has ruined his life, at a young age. Never to be trusted again. Such a shame. But there's one way out Lawrence - TURN ON YOUR EVIL MASTERS. BITE THE HAND THAT FEEDS YOU. ADMIT TO THE CORRUPTION AND LIES. COME CLEAN.Or not.Special Note: Google/Blogger has locked down LawrenceYunWatch and we can't post. Yes, they have the power to do that for absolutely no good reason (or at the request of their REIC advertisers). We're currently "under review" which they say can take up to a month. If anything ever happens to HP, I'll relocate the blog to www.housingpanic.com. FYI.Here's the anti-Yun editorial today over at SeekingAlpha:NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun continues to prove he's lost in the woods. I'm sure most of you who have followed the real estate market recall his long list of ridiculous predictions. Do you remember when he claimed house prices would rebound in 2007? His quotes continue to supply stand-up comedians with new material.One could reasonably argue that Yun is ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100200 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100200 Housing Panic 2008-05-13T15:39:19-05:00 &set=72157605038745692">?o=0'>?o=0' style='font-size: 9px; text-align: center;'>Click the image above to view the full photogallery. It's been a while since we checked in on prices in Santa Monica, so how is everyone feeling about the $1.995 million price tag on this 1913... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100197 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100197 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T15:26:31-05:00 A Grand Theft Auto IV: Liberty City fan with a lot of spare time has put together an amazing Flickr photo set of comparison shots of Liberty City sights with their real world (but not Real World) counterparts. It's nice to see the Paramount stripped of its Hard Rockness, but we'll take New York's murder rate over Liberty City's any day. · Sightseeing in Liberty City [Flickr/matthewj via Gawker]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100196 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100196 Curbed 2008-05-13T15:16:49-05:00 by LXPK The Flipping Pad, a social networking site that is designed to help people “share and discuss real estate investing” is putting a stake in the site up for bids. You can place a bid on Sitepoint, an online auction site for web properties. What you’d get: 1. Outright Purchase: PM us for an est. and more [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100148 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100148 Future of Real Estate Marketing 2008-05-13T14:58:25-05:00 “Little Darling…it’s been a long, cold-lonely winter.  Little Darling, it seems like years since it’s been clear.  Here comes the sun,” …so “they”: say.  I’m delayng this listing one day from Wednesday to Thursday, hoping for a bit of blue sky and sunshine.  My iPhone tells me it will be sunny from Thursday until past Sunday!  [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100149 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100149 Rain City Guide 2008-05-13T14:56:50-05:00 Here is a graph that is clogging up all those internet tubes: Click on graph for larger image. This graph, from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, shows the non-borrowed reserves of financial institutions. Looks like some serious cliff diving, but with a little research, we discover this graph is misleading.The explanation is pretty simple. The Federal Reserve decided to classify the TAF and the primary dealer credit facility as borrowed reserves (see this table). If we back out these collateralized borrowings, you get the total reserves, and that has been very steady. False alarm.A more interesting chart was present by Dr. Janet Yellen this morning showing the Fed's balance sheet.This graph shows that about half the Fed's U.S. Treasuries have been committed to fight the liquidity crisis. ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100178 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100178 Calculated Risk 2008-05-13T14:55:00-05:00 Click on graph for larger image.A few headlines from Toll Conference call. So much for the 2008 Spring selling season. Well, there is always next year! ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100141 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100141 Calculated Risk 2008-05-13T14:43:00-05:00 The MTA just issued this press release: "The MTA met today with Tishman Speyer. Despite the best efforts of both sides, a final agreement could not be reached. The MTA has now re-entered discussions with other interested developers and remains committed to timely development of these unique and valuable parcels of land on Manhattan's Far West Side." That's all, folks. [Hudson Yards collapse coverage]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100129 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100129 Curbed 2008-05-13T14:38:58-05:00 And now, the latest from Racked, covering shopping and retail from the sidewalks up. 1) Tribeca: Racked reports that July 9 is the opening date for the Tribeca Whole Foods. That would be 69,000 square feet of grocery goodness on Warren Street. 2) Downtown Brooklyn: The latest Brooklyn location being pushed for an Apple store with vigor is 345 Adams, a government-owned building being renovated by Muss Development. Other possible tenants include Brooks Brothers, Uniqlo and H&M. 3) Manhattan: It's not so much that the bookstores are disappearing as much as they're moving out of sight, generally from street level to upper floors or basements. 4) Carroll Gardens: "It's not as if Brooklynites needed another spot on Smith Street to break out the plastic, but we won't hold that against good-looking newcomer Epaulet." Racked has a full photo gallery of the "chic men's and women's boutique."... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100130 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100130 Curbed 2008-05-13T14:28:59-05:00 American Idol judge Paula Abdul raises her hands to the audience and asks, "Don't my hands look like bunny rabbits?"  But we love Paula, and she's part of the family!SF Fed President Janet Yellen says that inflation has peaked.  "My forecast is the most likely outcome over the next couple of years is that total and core inflation will moderate from present levels," Yellen said in a speech to a business group in Vancouver. Uh, core rate is around 2.0%.  Is this peaking?  My definition of peaking may be different that Janet's.  2% just doesn't seem like a very big number.  Food and energy have been more volatile, but the number (including everything) is 3.2%.  Again, doesn't seem like a big enough number to get labelled "peaking."I get the feeling the Fed is always looking at the rear-view mirror and reacting to data that has happened in the past.  As an investor, I'm looking to the future and trying to anticipate what's coming next.  Interest rates are down and I don't think they'll be coming down more.  With rates down, I think we can anticipate a faster growing economy in the future.  Along with a growing economy, we could anticipate ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100123 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100123 The Learning Curve 2008-05-13T14:24:00-05:00 It's another edition of Neighborhood Council Dispatch, wherein Curbed and its correspondents sit for hours at neighborhood council board meetings to bring back the first word of what changes are afoot in the area. Your reports from the field always... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100131 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100131 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T14:21:03-05:00 It must be be getting pretty tough for the National Association of Realtors to put a positive spin on the real estate market when prices in most of the metro areas that it monitors are down and, in many cases,... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100114 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100114 Hot Property 2008-05-13T14:18:13-05:00 Going, going...almost gone. The Richard Neutra-designed Kaufmann House in Palm Springs goes up for auction tonight by Christie's. Price to live out your midmod century dreams - somewhere between $15 million-$25 million. [Time]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100115 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100115 Curbed Los Angeles 2008-05-13T14:09:53-05:00 There seems to be no end to the number of foreclosure opportunities for investors these days. In keeping with this trend, a number of Web sites have been created to serve the foreclosure investor. To that end, we’ve listed 100 sites below, from tutorials to databases to articles and blogs. Although some sites are more [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100108 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100108 REI Blog 2008-05-13T14:09:30-05:00 Via the CurbedWire: "According to the 'Celebrity Real Estate Wrap: Santana Throws UES Curveball' story, the squash court is the new must have amenity. Any thoughts on why? I mean obviously you would attract the 'right kind' of buyer/tenant but will this be a tactic that more and more developers will begin to use.? It’s low cost in that it just requires the square footage some wood and some lights but what are these guys thinking? I know of one building with a private squash court (Starck’s on Broad and Wall) and you have a story on another. Will we see more of this?" [CurbedWire Inbox]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100103 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100103 Curbed 2008-05-13T14:01:32-05:00 Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. Bloomberg, “The U.S. median price for a single- family home dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the biggest decline in at least 29 years, as values tumbled in two-thirds of U.S. cities, the National Association of Realtors said. The median was $196,300, down from $212,600 [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100088 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100088 The Housing Bubble 2008-05-13T13:59:15-05:00 Since launching Zillow Mortgage Marketplace a little over a month ago, we’ve received all sorts of recommendations and feedback from our users. We have been busy fixing a few things since then, but we’ve also recently added features the our lender community has asked for. We appreciate the great suggestions we’ve received and hope the new [...] ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100084 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100084 Zillow Blog 2008-05-13T13:49:15-05:00 The proposed extension of the Noho Historic District, outlined in red above and containing 56 buildings, was unanimously approved by the Landmarks Preservation Commission today, our friends at the GVSHP tell us. The area now protected includes Bond Street, Great Jones Street and bits of Lafayette Street and the Bowery. Would 40 Bond, 48 Bond or 25 Bond exist if this designation had come a couple years earlier? We shudder at even considering that question. It does appear that the owner of the old Screw Factory at 30 Great Jones Street made the smart move by demolishing the building to beat the designation, if tearing down a snazzy 110-year-old piece of architecture and making Christopher Gray sad can be considered a smart move. · Landmark Screw Problems [Curbed]... ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100104 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100104 Curbed 2008-05-13T13:49:07-05:00 From San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen: Credit, Housing, Commodities, and the Economy. (here is a PDF with graphs) On housing: Now let me turn to the second of the three main factors behind the current economic weakness—namely, the housing cycle. I have mentioned that earlier in this decade when financial markets were “awash in liquidity,” bubble-like conditions emerged in many areas of the economy, including housing. During this period, housing construction was very strong and housing prices soared. In fact, the ratio of house prices to rents—a kind of price-dividend ratio for housing—reached historical highs by early 2006, suggesting that house prices might be well above those that could be justified by fundamentals. Since then, housing markets have “hit the skids.” In inflation-adjusted terms, residential construction fell by 13 percent in 2006 and by 14 percent in the first half of last year. Of course, once the financial shock hit last summer, things got even worse, with real residential construction dropping at a 24 percent rate on average since then. And, indicators of conditions in housing markets are pointing lower for the future. Housing starts and permits as well as sales are trending down, and ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100078 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100078 Calculated Risk 2008-05-13T13:30:00-05:00 &set=72157605036136254">?o=0'>?o=0' style='font-size: 9px; text-align: center;'>Click the image above to view the full photogallery. The River Ridge condos, at 78 Ridge Street on the Lower East Side, has perhaps the worst location of any new Manhattan condo development. Our curiosity about this "luxury" building got to the point that, even after a PriceChop at the site of an old chicken slaughterhouse, we were quite taken aback when the first apartments went into contract. We've been keeping an eye on the River Ridge to see when one of the more expensive apartments got scooped up, and against all odds, it has finally happened. Apartment 2B, a 2BR unit weighing in at 1,083sqft with a big private terrace that gets you as close to the Williamsburg Bridge as you'd ever want to be, has gone into contract for $1,173,000. We think. According to StreetEasy, the price was increased from $999,500 after the unit went into contract, so maybe there's some numbers fudging going on to crack the million-dollar barrier, or maybe there was a bidding war. And after seeing the website, how can their not be a bidding war? · Listing: 78 Ridge Street [Elliman] · In Contract: Three Amigos at River Ridge ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100081 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100081 Curbed 2008-05-13T13:13:12-05:00 Here is an overview of non-residential investment and commercial real estate (CRE) from our most recent newsletter.Recently many companies have announced plans to cut capital spending in 2008. This probably means non-residential fixed investments will decline in 2008, as compared to 2007.This decline in investment is an important indicator for the economy, since changes in fixed investment correlate very well with GDP. The first graph shows the change in real GDP and Private Fixed Investment over the preceding four quarters through Q1 2008. Click on graph for larger image.The red line is the year-over-year change in fixed investment, and the blue line (scale on left axis) is the year-over-year change in GDP. Correlation is 79%. A decline in residential investment is one of the best indicators of a future recession, and that has been flashing a recession warning for some time. Now some of the focus is on non-residential investment, especially on commercial real estate, to determine if a recession has started. The second graph shows two components of private fixed investment: residential (shifted 5 quarters into the future) and nonresidential structures. This graph shows something very interesting: in general, residential investment leads nonresidential structure investment. There are periods ... http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100069 http://pfblogs.org/entry/1100069 Calculated Risk 2008-05-13T13:00:00-05:00